Prediction platform Kalshi issued a lifetime ban against disgraced former U.S. Rep. George Santos, marking the platform’s first lifetime ban following allegations of market manipulation and insider trading linked to the 2026 State of the Union address. The decision comes amid heightened oversight from U.S. financial regulators seeking to curb insider trading across growing event prediction markets.
The compliance department at Kalshi stated it established “reasonable cause” to conclude that the ousted Republican lawmaker intentionally manipulated event contract pricing connected to his attendance at the speech. In addition to the lifetime ban stemming from “his lack of cooperation,” the company levied a financial penalty of $71,356 against Santos. The action follows a prior regulatory settlement in July, when Santos agreed to pay $35,000 to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission alongside a separate three-year trading ban.
Regulatory filings indicate Santos traded on a market titled “Who will attend the State of the Union?” between Feb. 12 and Feb. 25. Because he directly controlled his own travel plans, he was forbidden from taking financial stakes in the outcome. Federal regulators noted that Santos executed multiple trades while simultaneously broadcasting updates on social media, including polls about his wardrobe choices, which drove contract values higher and allowed him to secure $3,448 in profit on a “yes” position. He subsequently took a “no” position before posting online that he was delayed at an airport, exiting that wager for a $14,391 gain after the odds shifted.
Santos, who was expelled from the U.S. House of Representatives in 2023 after being charged with campaign finance violations and fraud, ultimately did not attend the address. He had previously served 84 days of an 87-month prison sentence for wire fraud and identity theft before receiving clemency from President Donald Trump. Responding to earlier complaints on his podcast, Santos stated, “I guess people lost money. Some people made unexpected money. That’s to show you how fragile these markets are.” Following Monday’s disciplinary action, Santos publicly criticized the exchange on X, writing, “Hey @Kalshi thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform. Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for.”
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